In this essay for our “Chancing the Storm” series, Susan Joslyn discusses how research in cognitive psychology can uncover the thought processes behind the use and misuse of weather information. Myriad experts and practitioners of various disciplines are involved in the production of every forecast, but Joslyn outlines how the mental models each individual uses to interpret information can cause confusion, even among experts. Drawing on her research at her Decision Making with Uncertainty Lab at the University of Washington, Joslyn shows how simple phrasing choices can cause decision errors. By accounting for the thought processes behind the interpretation of information, can we improve the practice of information sharing and decision-making in uncertain weather conditions?
Susan Joslyn
Susan Joslyn is an associate professor of psychology at University of Washington. She is a cognitive psychologist whose research is on decision-making under uncertainty, such as those involving severe weather, climate change, and medical treatment. Her highly interdisciplinary approach makes important theoretical contributions to the psychology of decision-making as well as having implications for best practices in uncertainty communication techniques in several domains. The American Psychological Association recognized the quality of her work with a New Investigator Award in 1999 and a Best Paper Award in 2012. She serves on the Pacific Northwest Integrated Weather Team and the Advisory Board for the Alliance for Integrative Approaches to Extreme Weather Events.