In this essay for our “Chancing the Storm” series, Susan Joslyn discusses how research in cognitive psychology can uncover the thought processes behind the use and misuse of weather information. Myriad experts and practitioners of various disciplines are involved in the production of every forecast, but Joslyn outlines how the mental models each individual uses to interpret information can cause confusion, even among experts. Drawing on her research at her Decision Making with Uncertainty Lab at the University of Washington, Joslyn shows how simple phrasing choices can cause decision errors. By accounting for the thought processes behind the interpretation of information, can we improve the practice of information sharing and decision-making in uncertain weather conditions?
